wikipedia picture
By looking into the past elections, I am predicting that the following States will vote in favor of the following parties.
Dem. 10 Maryland
Dem. 3 Vermont
Rep. 3 Alaska
Dem. 5 West Virginia (swing)
Rep. 34 Texas (republican vote has declined over the past 2 elections, will be interesting to see what happens this year)
Rep. 9 Colorado (swing)
While doing research I found these neat sites that could help understand the political landscape.
http://realclearpolitics.com/
Election 2004 results by state
RCP Interactive Map
Electoral outcome prediction and votes history
Analysis of Maryland, Vermont, Alaska, West Virginia, Texas and Colorado:
Maryland
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryland
Maryland has voted Democrat for the past 4 elections (since 1992.)
Bush’s approval rating is 36% and polls show that Obama leads McCain 53 to 40%
If race is an indicator then the demographics are also in Obama’s favor since there is a 30% population of black voters.
Vermont
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vermont
Vermont has voted Democratic in the past four presidential elections, and their 2005 32% approval of Bush suggests that this trend will continue in November (SurveyUSA). The most recent poll was a hypotethetical Obama – McCain match-up from late February in which Obama was leading 63% to 29% (SurveyUSA). There is no party registration in Vermont but voters must choose which primary they will vote in; of 421,987 registered voters in the March 4th primaries, 155,280 voted Democrat (and 59.2% for Obama) and 40,120 voted Republican (70.8% for McCain) (Vermont Secretary of State). We predict that this comparative vibrancy of the Democratic party as evidenced by historical and recent elections will give the state to Obama in November.
Alaska
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska
Sarah Palin seems to be enthusiastically supported by her traditionally Republican home state. We predict that the Republican trend in every presidential election since 1960 will continue, and that the state will go to McCain/Palin.
West Virginia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia
West Virgina had voted consistently Democratically prior to the 2000 Presidential election, when they voted for Bush by a six point margin. They elected him again in 2004 by a thirteen point margin, but now give him only a 27% approval rating (Rasmussen). In addition, Democrats are “currently holding the governorship, both senate seats, two of three house seats and both houses of the state legislature” (Wikipedia) as a result of the 2006 mid-term election, suggesting a swing back to the left.
The most recent McCain – Obama match-ups are from June 2nd and show the Republican with an eight point lead (RCP), however the state voted decisively for Hillary in the May 13th primary 67% to 25.7% (NYT). Subsequent efforts by the Democrats to unify the party might sway once-staunch Hillary supporters to Obama and away from McCain. We predict that these trends, combined with the 665,234 to 347,760 lead that the Democrats have in registered voters (AP) will give the state to Obama in November.
Texas
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas
Texas has voted Republican since the 1980’s. In 2004, 4,526,917 voted for Republican and 2,832,704 voted Democrat. With numbers like these, it is clear that the state will remain Republican.
Colorado
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colorado
Recent Colorado polls indicate that November will be an extremely close race, with as low as a 0.4% lead for Obama in a six-poll average that has been narrowing over time (RCP, Rasmussen). Historically, however, Colorado has voted Republican in every election but one since 1980 – in 1992 Clinton won with 40% of the vote, Bush Sr. received 36%, and Perot received 23% (and perhaps the Republican base was split by Perot’s candidacy) (CNN). Most recently in 2004 Bush won with 1,101,255 votes to Kerry’s 1,001,732 of a total population of 4,861,515, but Bush’s approval ratings were at 35% as recently as 2006 (CNN). Current party registration numbers put the Democrats at 946,277 and the Republicans at 1,024,504 (AP). The demographic is primarily white (91.91%) with 4.74% African American, and 3.19% Asian. Colorado has a Democratic Governor elected in 2006, and the President of the State Senate, Peter Groff, is African American (Colorado Independent). Obama has received $5,023,519 of contributions in the state, to McCain’s $1,849,772 (FEC).
These factors make it difficult to predict an outcome for November, so further analysis of the February 5th primary results is required. Romney won the Republican primary by 60.1% to McCain’s 18.4%, while Obama won the Democratic primary with 66.6% to Clinton’s 32.3% (NYT). Obama has had a strong organization in the state for many months, and their work might be easier with much of the population concentrated in a handful of urban areas (Wikipedia). The recent Democratic National Convention in Denver (where Obama’s acceptance speech drew 84,000 people (AP)) may serve to re-energize this organization to campaign throughout the state. Thus, we predict that Colorado will go to Obama in November, although by a very small margin.
…and now some quotes:
Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.
Napoleon Bonaparte (1769 – 1821)
You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
Eric Hoffer (1902 – 1983)